The Baltic Sea is transforming into a zone of confrontation between NATO and Russia

Russian intelligence operatives might also be employing certain vessels for activities conducted above the water’s surface.

In contrast to Russia’s massive nuclear-powered submarines, Sweden’s A26, measuring a mere 66 meters, is a compact design. However, what this submarine, manufactured by Saab, lacks in sheer size, it compensates for with its advanced stealth and surveillance capabilities. A specially designed opening in its front allows for the deployment of underwater drones, sensors, or divers onto the ocean floor. For the murky depths of the Baltic Sea and the clandestine conflict occurring within them, the A26 offers the most effective value. This was at least the conclusion reached by the Polish government on November 26th, when they opted to acquire three of these submarines for an estimated $2.8 billion.

For nations such as Poland, maintaining awareness both on and beneath the Baltic Sea is a critical national security concern. The sea is densely populated with telecommunications and energy infrastructure. A natural gas pipeline, the Balticconnector, connects Finland and Estonia. Another, the Baltic Pipe, transports gas from Norway to Poland. Communication and power cables are laid across the seabed. Earlier this year, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their power systems from Russia’s grid; of the four connections linking them to the European network, three are submerged. Above the water, hundreds of wind turbines are situated off the coasts of Denmark and Germany, with new ones being erected off Poland’s coast. The Baltic’s shores are home to ten LNG terminals, with two more currently under construction.

On paper, NATO’s presence in the Baltic has never been more substantial. Of the nine countries bordering the sea, all except Russia are members of the alliance. However, while NATO possesses a clear advantage in the Baltic concerning conventional naval strength, Russia has the capacity to cause significant disruption. Since 2023, there have been at least 11 suspected incidents of damage to Baltic Sea infrastructure, many of which are attributed to Russia’s shadow fleet, the network of tankers the country utilizes to circumvent Western sanctions. The most severe incidents involved breaches of the Balticconnector and a power cable connecting Finland and Estonia, likely caused by ships dragging their anchors along the seabed. Both required months to repair.

Russian intelligence operatives might also be employing certain vessels for activities conducted above the water’s surface. In September, drones that appeared to have been launched from ships associated with Russia were observed over Danish airports. Similar occurrences have since taken place in France and Germany.

These hybrid tactics enable Russia to disclaim responsibility, test NATO’s collective defense commitments, and assess each member’s willingness to engage in conflict. However, Vladimir Putin’s administration is also beginning to act more openly. In early October, Denmark’s defense intelligence service disclosed that Russian warships had aimed their weaponry at Danish naval vessels and helicopters, and had maneuvered towards Danish ships in a manner simulating a collision.